NOVOMATIC Italia and Fortune present the Prisma and LUISS research on unregulated gaming

The LUISS–Prisma research findings were presented in Rome, outlining an underground market worth €29.8 billion and an associated annual loss in tax revenue of €1.3 billion. Italy maintains a channelization rate of 92%, among the highest in Europe, but the legal sector remains exposed to pressure from unauthorized offshore operators.

The illegal gaming market in Italy continues to represent a concrete threat not only to public finances but also to consumer protection and the overall stability of the concession system. This was the picture that emerged during the event “Misurare l’invisibile. Il mercato del gioco non regolato in Italia" (Measuring the Invisible: the unregulated gaming market in Italy), organized by Fortune Italia together with NOVOMATIC Italia, held yesterday in Rome at La Lanterna, bringing together representatives from academia, institutions, regulatory authorities, and the industry.

On the occasion, the results of the LUISS–Prisma research on measuring the unregulated gaming market in Italy were presented, within a broader discussion involving academic experts, institutions, supervisory authorities, and operators.

A RESILIENT SYSTEM, BUT ONE THAT MUST BE PROTECTED - The analyses showed that Italy maintains a channelization rate of 92% of actual spending within the legal gaming market, one of the highest levels in Europe. This confirms the strength of the Italian concession system and the role played over time by a regulatory, technological, and operational framework capable of directing the vast majority of demand toward regulated channels. At the same time, this very result highlights the risk posed by the remaining share that still escapes control.

THE SCALE OF ILLEGALITY - According to the LUISS–Prisma reports, in 2024 total gaming turnover reached €187.2 billion, yet €29.8 billion remained outside the regulated system and was captured by the illegal market. This represents a significant share - 16% of the total - clearly illustrating the economic scale of the phenomenon and its impact on the sector’s balance.

A MULTI-LAYERED IMPACT: FEWER PROTECTION, FEWER RESOURCES, MORE OPACITY - A central point that emerged during the discussion is that illegal gaming produces multiple negative effects. On the one hand, it exposes consumers to offerings without safeguards, no traceability, no limits, and no reliable mechanisms for self-exclusion or for mitigating problematic behavior. On the other hand, it directly affects public revenues by diverting tax resources and fueling opaque circuits that may intersect with the criminal economy. Finally, it weakens the legal system by reducing the competitiveness of authorized operators and putting pressure on the concession framework, which serves as the primary safeguard for legality, transparency, and protection.

UNAUTHORIZED OFFSHORE OPERATORS AS THE MAIN CRITICAL AREA - The research highlighted that more than 85% of illegal volume is now generated by offshore digital platforms operating outside licensing regimes, tax obligations, anti-money laundering rules, and consumer protection standards. This segment also includes crypto casinos, Telegram bots, and other digital tools that enable anonymous access, unlimited deposits, and fully opaque financial flows. The competitive advantage of illegal operators is rooted in this asymmetry: higher payouts, aggressive bonuses, and no constraints, compared with a regulated market that must comply with strict rules, controls, and obligations.

CONSUMERS MORE EXPOSED OUTSIDE THE LEGAL FRAMEWORK - One of the clearest messages from the discussion concerns player protection. Only the regulated system is capable of offering concrete safeguards, from payment traceability and deposit limits to identification systems, self-exclusion mechanisms, and links to support services. When players migrate to the underground market, these protections disappear. The apparent convenience of illegal offerings thus translates into greater real risks for consumers.

THE RESILIENCE OF THE CONCESSION SYSTEM DEPENDS ON LEGAL COMPETITIVENESS - Another key point that emerged is that combating illegal markets cannot be separated from the ability of the legal sector to remain competitive. A regulated offering must continue to invest in technological innovation, anti-fraud systems, early identification of problematic behaviors, and advanced protection tools. If authorized operators are progressively weakened by unsustainable conditions, a paradoxical effect arises: players move toward unregulated environments, while the system loses effectiveness, control, and its capacity to protect.

A PUBLIC POLICY ISSUE, NOT JUST A MARKET ONE - The discussion placed illegal gaming within a broader public policy framework. Defending the concession system does not mean protecting vested interests, but preserving a tool that has enabled the sector to be governed, maintain high channelization rates, ensure public revenues, and build a framework of controls protecting the community. In this perspective, combating illegality and maintaining a viable legal market emerged as two sides of the same strategy.

THE LUISS-PRISMA STUDY: ANALYTICAL SUPPORT FOR FUTURE DECISIONS - The studies presented provide a solid quantitative and methodological foundation for understanding the phenomenon, based on econometric analysis using regional datasets (2015–2024) and robust multivariate models. The conclusion is clear: the Italian system works, but it must be protected. Any regulatory intervention affecting the sector should therefore also be assessed in terms of its impact on channelization, the competitiveness of legal operators, and the ability to keep players within regulated frameworks. The key figures are significant: a channelization rate of 92%, total turnover of €187.2 billion, and an estimated illegal market of €29.8 billion. Tax revenue from the legal market amounts to €10.5 billion, while the total annual loss attributed to the illegal market is estimated at €1.28 billion.

NOVOMATIC ITALIA'S PERSPECTIVE - Markus Büchele, CEO of NOVOMATIC Italia, addressed the topic by sharing the Group’s perspective on illegal and unregulated gaming, emphasizing that “this is not an external phenomenon, but one of the main factors distorting the market, creating asymmetric competition to the detriment of operators that invest in concessions, technology, and controls.” Reaffirming the public value of the concession system, he highlighted the need to “strengthen the competitiveness of the legal market through a decisive technological upgrade capable of combining innovation and control,” noting that “supporting legal gaming does not mean encouraging it, but preventing demand from shifting to unregulated channels.” “The real alternative,” he concluded, “is not between gaming and non-gaming, but between controlled and uncontrolled gaming.”